In the Supplementary Information, we will report the medians of the posterior distributions, but both the medians and the means are shown in this document.
The credible intervals used are 95% CI.
In the function 'mcmc_intervals':
Model M0
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.280 |
0.176 |
5.942 |
6.664 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.601 |
0.003 |
0.596 |
0.607 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.153 |
0.003 |
-0.159 |
-0.147 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.384 |
0.230 |
0.166 |
0.989 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.044 |
0.007 |
0.032 |
0.061 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.350 |
0.002 |
0.347 |
0.354 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.200 |
0.370 |
0.027 |
0.979 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.004 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.123 |
0.001 |
0.121 |
0.125 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.280 |
0.176 |
5.942 |
6.664 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.601 |
0.003 |
0.596 |
0.607 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.153 |
0.003 |
-0.159 |
-0.147 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Site intercepts
Tables
Mean
| \(S_{Asturias}\) |
0.267 |
0.176 |
-0.129 |
0.607 |
| \(S_{Bordeaux}\) |
0.133 |
0.176 |
-0.257 |
0.485 |
| \(S_{Caceres}\) |
0.061 |
0.176 |
-0.343 |
0.392 |
| \(S_{Madrid}\) |
-0.367 |
0.176 |
-0.749 |
-0.025 |
| \(S_{Portugal}\) |
-0.126 |
0.177 |
-0.515 |
0.217 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Density ridges
In the Supplementary Information.

Model M1
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.246 |
0.193 |
5.842 |
6.643 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.598 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.003 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.115 |
0.016 |
0.090 |
0.152 |
| \(\sigma_{G}\) |
0.108 |
0.004 |
0.100 |
0.116 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.394 |
0.241 |
0.168 |
1.023 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.041 |
0.007 |
0.030 |
0.055 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.313 |
0.001 |
0.310 |
0.316 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.014 |
0.004 |
0.008 |
0.023 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) |
0.012 |
0.001 |
0.010 |
0.013 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.213 |
0.444 |
0.028 |
1.046 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.098 |
0.001 |
0.096 |
0.100 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.246 |
0.193 |
5.842 |
6.643 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.598 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.003 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Site intercepts
Tables
Mean
| \(S_{Asturias}\) |
0.293 |
0.193 |
-0.103 |
0.690 |
| \(S_{Bordeaux}\) |
0.153 |
0.193 |
-0.254 |
0.555 |
| \(S_{Caceres}\) |
0.042 |
0.194 |
-0.366 |
0.443 |
| \(S_{Madrid}\) |
-0.376 |
0.193 |
-0.780 |
0.019 |
| \(S_{Portugal}\) |
-0.108 |
0.193 |
-0.513 |
0.288 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Density ridges
In the Supplementary Information.


Conditional effect of age
In the Supplementary Information.

Provenance intercepts
Table
Mean
| \(P_{ALT}\) |
0.089 |
0.041 |
0.009 |
0.168 |
| \(P_{ARM}\) |
0.121 |
0.043 |
0.039 |
0.205 |
| \(P_{ARN}\) |
-0.093 |
0.032 |
-0.158 |
-0.031 |
| \(P_{BAY}\) |
-0.135 |
0.033 |
-0.196 |
-0.072 |
| \(P_{BON}\) |
-0.040 |
0.042 |
-0.121 |
0.041 |
| \(P_{CAD}\) |
0.061 |
0.040 |
-0.016 |
0.142 |
| \(P_{CAR}\) |
-0.162 |
0.047 |
-0.254 |
-0.071 |
| \(P_{CAS}\) |
0.054 |
0.041 |
-0.026 |
0.132 |
| \(P_{CEN}\) |
0.011 |
0.042 |
-0.073 |
0.093 |
| \(P_{COC}\) |
-0.154 |
0.034 |
-0.222 |
-0.088 |
| \(P_{COM}\) |
0.076 |
0.054 |
-0.033 |
0.181 |
| \(P_{CUE}\) |
-0.171 |
0.030 |
-0.233 |
-0.113 |
| \(P_{HOU}\) |
0.162 |
0.030 |
0.102 |
0.220 |
| \(P_{LAM}\) |
0.014 |
0.040 |
-0.064 |
0.093 |
| \(P_{LEI}\) |
0.038 |
0.032 |
-0.023 |
0.101 |
| \(P_{MAD}\) |
0.021 |
0.083 |
-0.146 |
0.181 |
| \(P_{MIM}\) |
0.005 |
0.034 |
-0.061 |
0.071 |
| \(P_{OLB}\) |
0.047 |
0.031 |
-0.013 |
0.108 |
| \(P_{OLO}\) |
0.141 |
0.032 |
0.078 |
0.204 |
| \(P_{ORI}\) |
-0.121 |
0.030 |
-0.180 |
-0.062 |
| \(P_{PET}\) |
0.123 |
0.030 |
0.065 |
0.182 |
| \(P_{PIA}\) |
0.089 |
0.034 |
0.023 |
0.154 |
| \(P_{PIE}\) |
-0.078 |
0.042 |
-0.163 |
0.002 |
| \(P_{PLE}\) |
0.000 |
0.032 |
-0.062 |
0.063 |
| \(P_{PUE}\) |
0.073 |
0.044 |
-0.011 |
0.161 |
| \(P_{QUA}\) |
0.020 |
0.034 |
-0.046 |
0.089 |
| \(P_{SAC}\) |
-0.034 |
0.042 |
-0.115 |
0.047 |
| \(P_{SAL}\) |
-0.171 |
0.036 |
-0.244 |
-0.100 |
| \(P_{SEG}\) |
0.007 |
0.031 |
-0.052 |
0.070 |
| \(P_{SIE}\) |
0.002 |
0.042 |
-0.078 |
0.086 |
| \(P_{STJ}\) |
0.172 |
0.029 |
0.117 |
0.231 |
| \(P_{TAM}\) |
-0.226 |
0.036 |
-0.297 |
-0.153 |
| \(P_{VAL}\) |
-0.047 |
0.038 |
-0.120 |
0.027 |
| \(P_{VER}\) |
0.106 |
0.030 |
0.047 |
0.165 |
Figs
Density Ridges


Model M2
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.216 |
0.285 |
5.753 |
6.670 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.597 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.602 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.002 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.109 |
0.017 |
0.081 |
0.147 |
| \(\sigma_{G}\) |
0.108 |
0.004 |
0.100 |
0.117 |
| \(\sigma_{Inter}\) |
0.063 |
0.007 |
0.051 |
0.077 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.426 |
0.377 |
0.172 |
1.193 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.040 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.056 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.311 |
0.001 |
0.308 |
0.313 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.012 |
0.004 |
0.007 |
0.022 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) |
0.012 |
0.001 |
0.010 |
0.014 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{Inter}\) |
0.004 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
0.006 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.324 |
1.525 |
0.030 |
1.423 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.096 |
0.001 |
0.095 |
0.098 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.216 |
0.285 |
5.753 |
6.670 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.597 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.602 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.002 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Site intercepts
Tables
Mean
| \(S_{Asturias}\) |
0.327 |
0.286 |
-0.118 |
0.788 |
| \(S_{Bordeaux}\) |
0.174 |
0.286 |
-0.269 |
0.632 |
| \(S_{Caceres}\) |
0.060 |
0.286 |
-0.394 |
0.532 |
| \(S_{Madrid}\) |
-0.359 |
0.286 |
-0.809 |
0.117 |
| \(S_{Portugal}\) |
-0.082 |
0.286 |
-0.531 |
0.382 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Provenance intercepts
ALL
Portugal
Caceres
Madrid
Bordeaux
Asturias
Merging the plots
In the Supplementary Information.

Model M3
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.315 |
0.315 |
5.825 |
6.808 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.603 |
0.013 |
0.577 |
0.625 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.187 |
0.016 |
-0.223 |
-0.157 |
| \(\sigma_{G}\) |
0.108 |
0.004 |
0.100 |
0.116 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.115 |
0.016 |
0.089 |
0.152 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.456 |
0.411 |
0.164 |
1.377 |
| \(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.187 |
0.161 |
0.054 |
0.524 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.041 |
0.007 |
0.030 |
0.056 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.312 |
0.001 |
0.309 |
0.315 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) |
0.012 |
0.001 |
0.010 |
0.013 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.014 |
0.004 |
0.008 |
0.023 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.377 |
1.694 |
0.027 |
1.895 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.061 |
0.314 |
0.003 |
0.274 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.097 |
0.001 |
0.096 |
0.099 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.315 |
0.315 |
5.825 |
6.808 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.603 |
0.013 |
0.577 |
0.625 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.187 |
0.016 |
-0.223 |
-0.157 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Site intercepts
Tables
Mean
| \(S_{Asturias}\) |
0.271 |
0.326 |
-0.248 |
0.809 |
| \(S_{Bordeaux}\) |
0.154 |
0.341 |
-0.382 |
0.726 |
| \(S_{Caceres}\) |
0.067 |
0.341 |
-0.520 |
0.596 |
| \(S_{Madrid}\) |
-0.375 |
0.321 |
-0.902 |
0.092 |
| \(S_{Portugal}\) |
-0.185 |
0.320 |
-0.717 |
0.291 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Intercepts of the annual climate in the test sites
Tables
Mean
| \(cs_{1,Asturias}\) |
0.013 |
0.076 |
-0.139 |
0.168 |
| \(cs_{2,Asturias}\) |
-0.027 |
0.085 |
-0.198 |
0.141 |
| \(cs_{3,Asturias}\) |
0.016 |
0.040 |
-0.047 |
0.114 |
| \(cs_{1,Bordeaux}\) |
-0.107 |
0.126 |
-0.353 |
0.160 |
| \(cs_{2,Bordeaux}\) |
0.052 |
0.084 |
-0.096 |
0.246 |
| \(cs_{1,Caceres}\) |
-0.014 |
0.145 |
-0.347 |
0.242 |
| \(cs_{1,Madrid}\) |
-0.036 |
0.064 |
-0.166 |
0.095 |
| \(cs_{1,Portugal}\) |
0.027 |
0.055 |
-0.089 |
0.132 |
| \(cs_{2,Portugal}\) |
0.065 |
0.051 |
-0.040 |
0.165 |
| \(cs_{3,Portugal}\) |
0.032 |
0.048 |
-0.072 |
0.123 |
| \(cs_{4,Portugal}\) |
-0.019 |
0.061 |
-0.142 |
0.103 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Provenance intercepts
Table
| \(P_{ALT}\) |
0.090 |
0.042 |
0.007 |
0.170 |
| \(P_{ARM}\) |
0.124 |
0.043 |
0.040 |
0.208 |
| \(P_{ARN}\) |
-0.094 |
0.033 |
-0.158 |
-0.030 |
| \(P_{BAY}\) |
-0.134 |
0.033 |
-0.197 |
-0.067 |
| \(P_{BON}\) |
-0.040 |
0.042 |
-0.123 |
0.045 |
| \(P_{CAD}\) |
0.064 |
0.040 |
-0.014 |
0.143 |
| \(P_{CAR}\) |
-0.160 |
0.048 |
-0.258 |
-0.067 |
| \(P_{CAS}\) |
0.055 |
0.039 |
-0.021 |
0.133 |
| \(P_{CEN}\) |
0.011 |
0.041 |
-0.073 |
0.092 |
| \(P_{COC}\) |
-0.152 |
0.033 |
-0.215 |
-0.090 |
| \(P_{COM}\) |
0.076 |
0.055 |
-0.031 |
0.182 |
| \(P_{CUE}\) |
-0.171 |
0.030 |
-0.229 |
-0.114 |
| \(P_{HOU}\) |
0.163 |
0.029 |
0.108 |
0.219 |
| \(P_{LAM}\) |
0.014 |
0.041 |
-0.065 |
0.098 |
| \(P_{LEI}\) |
0.040 |
0.030 |
-0.019 |
0.100 |
| \(P_{MAD}\) |
0.021 |
0.081 |
-0.138 |
0.181 |
| \(P_{MIM}\) |
0.007 |
0.033 |
-0.059 |
0.071 |
| \(P_{OLB}\) |
0.048 |
0.032 |
-0.014 |
0.110 |
| \(P_{OLO}\) |
0.141 |
0.030 |
0.083 |
0.201 |
| \(P_{ORI}\) |
-0.122 |
0.030 |
-0.180 |
-0.063 |
| \(P_{PET}\) |
0.126 |
0.031 |
0.066 |
0.186 |
| \(P_{PIA}\) |
0.088 |
0.034 |
0.020 |
0.153 |
| \(P_{PIE}\) |
-0.080 |
0.040 |
-0.160 |
-0.003 |
| \(P_{PLE}\) |
-0.001 |
0.033 |
-0.066 |
0.062 |
| \(P_{PUE}\) |
0.076 |
0.043 |
-0.007 |
0.160 |
| \(P_{QUA}\) |
0.020 |
0.033 |
-0.042 |
0.086 |
| \(P_{SAC}\) |
-0.033 |
0.041 |
-0.112 |
0.049 |
| \(P_{SAL}\) |
-0.171 |
0.036 |
-0.243 |
-0.102 |
| \(P_{SEG}\) |
0.007 |
0.032 |
-0.055 |
0.070 |
| \(P_{SIE}\) |
0.002 |
0.042 |
-0.077 |
0.084 |
| \(P_{STJ}\) |
0.172 |
0.029 |
0.115 |
0.230 |
| \(P_{TAM}\) |
-0.225 |
0.035 |
-0.294 |
-0.155 |
| \(P_{VAL}\) |
-0.045 |
0.037 |
-0.119 |
0.027 |
| \(P_{VER}\) |
0.108 |
0.030 |
0.047 |
0.165 |
Figs

Model M3bis
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.284 |
0.036 |
6.213 |
6.356 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.630 |
0.008 |
0.614 |
0.645 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.153 |
0.010 |
-0.172 |
-0.134 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.174 |
0.025 |
0.132 |
0.231 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.115 |
0.016 |
0.089 |
0.149 |
| \(\sigma_{G}\) |
0.108 |
0.004 |
0.100 |
0.116 |
| \(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.188 |
0.109 |
0.076 |
0.479 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.312 |
0.001 |
0.309 |
0.315 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.031 |
0.009 |
0.017 |
0.053 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.014 |
0.004 |
0.008 |
0.022 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) |
0.012 |
0.001 |
0.010 |
0.013 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.047 |
0.083 |
0.006 |
0.229 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.097 |
0.001 |
0.096 |
0.099 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.284 |
0.036 |
6.213 |
6.356 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.630 |
0.008 |
0.614 |
0.645 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.153 |
0.010 |
-0.172 |
-0.134 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Intercepts of the annual climate in the test sites
Tables
Mean
| \(cs_{1,Asturias}\) |
0.132 |
0.026 |
0.080 |
0.180 |
| \(cs_{2,Asturias}\) |
0.117 |
0.030 |
0.054 |
0.172 |
| \(cs_{3,Asturias}\) |
0.027 |
0.020 |
-0.009 |
0.069 |
| \(cs_{1,Bordeaux}\) |
0.083 |
0.042 |
-0.003 |
0.162 |
| \(cs_{2,Bordeaux}\) |
0.134 |
0.031 |
0.076 |
0.195 |
| \(cs_{1,Caceres}\) |
-0.158 |
0.053 |
-0.264 |
-0.057 |
| \(cs_{1,Madrid}\) |
-0.140 |
0.030 |
-0.198 |
-0.082 |
| \(cs_{1,Portugal}\) |
-0.047 |
0.022 |
-0.088 |
-0.004 |
| \(cs_{2,Portugal}\) |
-0.007 |
0.023 |
-0.051 |
0.041 |
| \(cs_{3,Portugal}\) |
-0.028 |
0.020 |
-0.066 |
0.011 |
| \(cs_{4,Portugal}\) |
-0.114 |
0.028 |
-0.168 |
-0.056 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Provenance intercepts
Table
| \(P_{ALT}\) |
0.090 |
0.041 |
0.010 |
0.171 |
| \(P_{ARM}\) |
0.121 |
0.043 |
0.037 |
0.205 |
| \(P_{ARN}\) |
-0.093 |
0.034 |
-0.161 |
-0.026 |
| \(P_{BAY}\) |
-0.135 |
0.033 |
-0.199 |
-0.070 |
| \(P_{BON}\) |
-0.040 |
0.041 |
-0.122 |
0.040 |
| \(P_{CAD}\) |
0.062 |
0.040 |
-0.017 |
0.141 |
| \(P_{CAR}\) |
-0.163 |
0.048 |
-0.258 |
-0.073 |
| \(P_{CAS}\) |
0.054 |
0.039 |
-0.023 |
0.130 |
| \(P_{CEN}\) |
0.010 |
0.041 |
-0.068 |
0.090 |
| \(P_{COC}\) |
-0.153 |
0.033 |
-0.219 |
-0.088 |
| \(P_{COM}\) |
0.078 |
0.056 |
-0.031 |
0.191 |
| \(P_{CUE}\) |
-0.172 |
0.029 |
-0.228 |
-0.116 |
| \(P_{HOU}\) |
0.162 |
0.030 |
0.105 |
0.221 |
| \(P_{LAM}\) |
0.013 |
0.041 |
-0.069 |
0.090 |
| \(P_{LEI}\) |
0.039 |
0.030 |
-0.020 |
0.098 |
| \(P_{MAD}\) |
0.021 |
0.084 |
-0.141 |
0.190 |
| \(P_{MIM}\) |
0.006 |
0.034 |
-0.059 |
0.074 |
| \(P_{OLB}\) |
0.047 |
0.031 |
-0.015 |
0.107 |
| \(P_{OLO}\) |
0.141 |
0.030 |
0.081 |
0.202 |
| \(P_{ORI}\) |
-0.122 |
0.030 |
-0.181 |
-0.066 |
| \(P_{PET}\) |
0.124 |
0.030 |
0.063 |
0.185 |
| \(P_{PIA}\) |
0.091 |
0.036 |
0.020 |
0.160 |
| \(P_{PIE}\) |
-0.078 |
0.041 |
-0.157 |
0.002 |
| \(P_{PLE}\) |
-0.001 |
0.032 |
-0.062 |
0.064 |
| \(P_{PUE}\) |
0.075 |
0.043 |
-0.008 |
0.158 |
| \(P_{QUA}\) |
0.018 |
0.034 |
-0.049 |
0.087 |
| \(P_{SAC}\) |
-0.033 |
0.042 |
-0.116 |
0.049 |
| \(P_{SAL}\) |
-0.171 |
0.035 |
-0.239 |
-0.102 |
| \(P_{SEG}\) |
0.006 |
0.032 |
-0.057 |
0.069 |
| \(P_{SIE}\) |
0.002 |
0.043 |
-0.082 |
0.085 |
| \(P_{STJ}\) |
0.172 |
0.030 |
0.114 |
0.231 |
| \(P_{TAM}\) |
-0.226 |
0.035 |
-0.297 |
-0.156 |
| \(P_{VAL}\) |
-0.048 |
0.038 |
-0.119 |
0.025 |
| \(P_{VER}\) |
0.105 |
0.030 |
0.049 |
0.164 |
Figs

Model M4
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.278 |
0.269 |
5.704 |
6.811 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.604 |
0.012 |
0.577 |
0.626 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.186 |
0.016 |
-0.221 |
-0.156 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.131 |
0.074 |
0.049 |
0.305 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.082 |
0.014 |
0.058 |
0.113 |
| \(\sigma_{G}\) |
0.108 |
0.004 |
0.100 |
0.116 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.463 |
0.383 |
0.163 |
1.458 |
| \(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.185 |
0.135 |
0.053 |
0.516 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.041 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.055 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.312 |
0.001 |
0.309 |
0.315 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.023 |
0.044 |
0.002 |
0.093 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.007 |
0.003 |
0.003 |
0.013 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) |
0.012 |
0.001 |
0.010 |
0.013 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.361 |
1.365 |
0.026 |
2.125 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.053 |
0.187 |
0.003 |
0.267 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.097 |
0.001 |
0.095 |
0.099 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.278 |
0.269 |
5.704 |
6.811 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.604 |
0.012 |
0.577 |
0.626 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.186 |
0.016 |
-0.221 |
-0.156 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Provenance intercepts
Table
| \(P_{ALT}\) |
0.054 |
0.041 |
-0.027 |
0.136 |
| \(P_{ARM}\) |
0.079 |
0.044 |
-0.004 |
0.170 |
| \(P_{ARN}\) |
-0.028 |
0.036 |
-0.100 |
0.042 |
| \(P_{BAY}\) |
-0.070 |
0.036 |
-0.142 |
0.000 |
| \(P_{BON}\) |
0.023 |
0.041 |
-0.060 |
0.103 |
| \(P_{CAD}\) |
0.027 |
0.040 |
-0.048 |
0.107 |
| \(P_{CAR}\) |
-0.097 |
0.048 |
-0.189 |
-0.003 |
| \(P_{CAS}\) |
0.014 |
0.042 |
-0.070 |
0.100 |
| \(P_{CEN}\) |
0.059 |
0.040 |
-0.021 |
0.140 |
| \(P_{COC}\) |
-0.096 |
0.034 |
-0.164 |
-0.031 |
| \(P_{COM}\) |
0.100 |
0.054 |
-0.002 |
0.213 |
| \(P_{CUE}\) |
-0.115 |
0.031 |
-0.177 |
-0.055 |
| \(P_{HOU}\) |
0.070 |
0.036 |
0.001 |
0.141 |
| \(P_{LAM}\) |
-0.025 |
0.042 |
-0.108 |
0.056 |
| \(P_{LEI}\) |
0.051 |
0.029 |
-0.007 |
0.109 |
| \(P_{MAD}\) |
0.049 |
0.071 |
-0.085 |
0.190 |
| \(P_{MIM}\) |
-0.076 |
0.037 |
-0.150 |
-0.005 |
| \(P_{OLB}\) |
0.107 |
0.031 |
0.044 |
0.167 |
| \(P_{OLO}\) |
0.048 |
0.038 |
-0.025 |
0.123 |
| \(P_{ORI}\) |
-0.062 |
0.047 |
-0.153 |
0.035 |
| \(P_{PET}\) |
0.033 |
0.038 |
-0.042 |
0.107 |
| \(P_{PIA}\) |
0.077 |
0.054 |
-0.031 |
0.184 |
| \(P_{PIE}\) |
-0.079 |
0.057 |
-0.195 |
0.028 |
| \(P_{PLE}\) |
-0.078 |
0.036 |
-0.148 |
-0.006 |
| \(P_{PUE}\) |
0.037 |
0.044 |
-0.048 |
0.127 |
| \(P_{QUA}\) |
0.072 |
0.036 |
0.001 |
0.144 |
| \(P_{SAC}\) |
-0.038 |
0.039 |
-0.115 |
0.039 |
| \(P_{SAL}\) |
-0.103 |
0.038 |
-0.180 |
-0.030 |
| \(P_{SEG}\) |
-0.017 |
0.034 |
-0.083 |
0.050 |
| \(P_{SIE}\) |
-0.025 |
0.043 |
-0.111 |
0.058 |
| \(P_{STJ}\) |
0.082 |
0.036 |
0.011 |
0.154 |
| \(P_{TAM}\) |
-0.097 |
0.060 |
-0.215 |
0.020 |
| \(P_{VAL}\) |
0.013 |
0.038 |
-0.061 |
0.089 |
| \(P_{VER}\) |
0.015 |
0.036 |
-0.055 |
0.086 |
Figs
Gene pool intercepts
Table
| \(g_{NA}\) |
-0.126 |
0.084 |
-0.304 |
0.020 |
| \(g_{C}\) |
0.024 |
0.078 |
-0.131 |
0.184 |
| \(g_{CS}\) |
-0.057 |
0.069 |
-0.196 |
0.077 |
| \(g_{FA}\) |
0.112 |
0.071 |
-0.021 |
0.261 |
| \(g_{IA}\) |
0.056 |
0.069 |
-0.074 |
0.197 |
| \(g_{SES}\) |
-0.020 |
0.084 |
-0.187 |
0.149 |
Figs
Model M5
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.282 |
0.220 |
5.819 |
6.708 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.604 |
0.012 |
0.578 |
0.626 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.186 |
0.016 |
-0.221 |
-0.158 |
| \(\sigma_{A_{NA}}\) |
0.125 |
0.034 |
0.072 |
0.203 |
| \(\sigma_{A_{C}}\) |
0.161 |
0.028 |
0.115 |
0.224 |
| \(\sigma_{A_{CS}}\) |
0.132 |
0.010 |
0.114 |
0.153 |
| \(\sigma_{A_{FA}}\) |
0.124 |
0.009 |
0.108 |
0.142 |
| \(\sigma_{A_{IA}}\) |
0.106 |
0.012 |
0.084 |
0.131 |
| \(\sigma_{A_{SES}}\) |
0.167 |
0.035 |
0.107 |
0.244 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.076 |
0.069 |
0.004 |
0.252 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.105 |
0.018 |
0.075 |
0.145 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.425 |
0.278 |
0.161 |
1.122 |
| \(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.188 |
0.130 |
0.056 |
0.512 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.040 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.055 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.312 |
0.001 |
0.310 |
0.315 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{A_{NA}}\) |
0.017 |
0.010 |
0.005 |
0.041 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{A_{C}}\) |
0.027 |
0.010 |
0.013 |
0.050 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{A_{CS}}\) |
0.018 |
0.003 |
0.013 |
0.024 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{A_{FA}}\) |
0.015 |
0.002 |
0.012 |
0.020 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{A_{IA}}\) |
0.011 |
0.003 |
0.007 |
0.017 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{A_{SES}}\) |
0.029 |
0.012 |
0.011 |
0.059 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.011 |
0.031 |
0.000 |
0.064 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.011 |
0.004 |
0.006 |
0.021 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.258 |
0.565 |
0.026 |
1.259 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.052 |
0.157 |
0.003 |
0.262 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.098 |
0.001 |
0.096 |
0.099 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.282 |
0.220 |
5.819 |
6.708 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.604 |
0.012 |
0.578 |
0.626 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.186 |
0.016 |
-0.221 |
-0.158 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Genetic variance
Total genetic variances
Partial genetic values
Model M6
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.271 |
0.235 |
5.777 |
6.723 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.604 |
0.013 |
0.576 |
0.627 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.187 |
0.018 |
-0.224 |
-0.156 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.068 |
0.060 |
0.003 |
0.224 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.074 |
0.013 |
0.051 |
0.103 |
| \(\sigma_{cp_{p}}\) |
0.135 |
0.166 |
0.014 |
0.494 |
| \(\sigma_{G}\) |
0.108 |
0.004 |
0.100 |
0.116 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.441 |
0.307 |
0.162 |
1.198 |
| \(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.188 |
0.133 |
0.054 |
0.545 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.041 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.055 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.312 |
0.001 |
0.309 |
0.315 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.008 |
0.018 |
0.000 |
0.050 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.006 |
0.002 |
0.003 |
0.011 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{cp_{p}}\) |
0.046 |
0.291 |
0.000 |
0.244 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) |
0.012 |
0.001 |
0.010 |
0.014 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.289 |
0.761 |
0.026 |
1.436 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) |
0.053 |
0.111 |
0.003 |
0.297 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.097 |
0.001 |
0.096 |
0.099 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.271 |
0.235 |
5.777 |
6.723 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.604 |
0.013 |
0.576 |
0.627 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.187 |
0.018 |
-0.224 |
-0.156 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Provenance intercepts
Table
| \(P_{ALT}\) |
0.058 |
0.038 |
-0.016 |
0.134 |
| \(P_{ARM}\) |
0.089 |
0.042 |
0.008 |
0.172 |
| \(P_{ARN}\) |
-0.015 |
0.039 |
-0.091 |
0.061 |
| \(P_{BAY}\) |
-0.048 |
0.036 |
-0.119 |
0.021 |
| \(P_{BON}\) |
0.041 |
0.040 |
-0.037 |
0.118 |
| \(P_{CAD}\) |
0.007 |
0.040 |
-0.075 |
0.085 |
| \(P_{CAR}\) |
-0.080 |
0.044 |
-0.167 |
0.007 |
| \(P_{CAS}\) |
-0.003 |
0.040 |
-0.082 |
0.075 |
| \(P_{CEN}\) |
0.091 |
0.041 |
0.011 |
0.171 |
| \(P_{COC}\) |
-0.074 |
0.033 |
-0.142 |
-0.009 |
| \(P_{COM}\) |
0.097 |
0.054 |
-0.004 |
0.206 |
| \(P_{CUE}\) |
-0.096 |
0.031 |
-0.157 |
-0.036 |
| \(P_{HOU}\) |
0.071 |
0.035 |
0.004 |
0.141 |
| \(P_{LAM}\) |
-0.048 |
0.041 |
-0.127 |
0.035 |
| \(P_{LEI}\) |
-0.023 |
0.047 |
-0.117 |
0.069 |
| \(P_{MAD}\) |
0.054 |
0.066 |
-0.076 |
0.184 |
| \(P_{MIM}\) |
-0.082 |
0.036 |
-0.156 |
-0.012 |
| \(P_{OLB}\) |
0.086 |
0.035 |
0.019 |
0.157 |
| \(P_{OLO}\) |
0.047 |
0.035 |
-0.022 |
0.117 |
| \(P_{ORI}\) |
-0.036 |
0.041 |
-0.120 |
0.042 |
| \(P_{PET}\) |
0.025 |
0.035 |
-0.044 |
0.096 |
| \(P_{PIA}\) |
0.047 |
0.053 |
-0.059 |
0.151 |
| \(P_{PIE}\) |
-0.062 |
0.052 |
-0.166 |
0.036 |
| \(P_{PLE}\) |
-0.073 |
0.035 |
-0.143 |
-0.005 |
| \(P_{PUE}\) |
0.014 |
0.043 |
-0.068 |
0.100 |
| \(P_{QUA}\) |
0.016 |
0.044 |
-0.067 |
0.104 |
| \(P_{SAC}\) |
-0.029 |
0.049 |
-0.127 |
0.066 |
| \(P_{SAL}\) |
-0.076 |
0.043 |
-0.165 |
0.006 |
| \(P_{SEG}\) |
-0.021 |
0.039 |
-0.097 |
0.053 |
| \(P_{SIE}\) |
-0.041 |
0.041 |
-0.122 |
0.037 |
| \(P_{STJ}\) |
0.079 |
0.033 |
0.016 |
0.144 |
| \(P_{TAM}\) |
-0.056 |
0.053 |
-0.162 |
0.043 |
| \(P_{VAL}\) |
0.030 |
0.037 |
-0.042 |
0.105 |
| \(P_{VER}\) |
0.013 |
0.035 |
-0.056 |
0.082 |
Figs
Gene pool intercepts
Table
| \(g_{NA}\) |
-0.045 |
0.067 |
-0.205 |
0.048 |
| \(g_{C}\) |
0.001 |
0.052 |
-0.105 |
0.113 |
| \(g_{CS}\) |
-0.023 |
0.046 |
-0.128 |
0.058 |
| \(g_{FA}\) |
0.056 |
0.060 |
-0.020 |
0.199 |
| \(g_{IA}\) |
0.014 |
0.048 |
-0.068 |
0.129 |
| \(g_{SES}\) |
-0.003 |
0.056 |
-0.127 |
0.115 |
Figs
Provenance climate intercepts
Table
| \(cp_{ALT}\) |
0.022 |
0.016 |
-0.009 |
0.049 |
| \(cp_{ARM}\) |
0.014 |
0.018 |
-0.022 |
0.049 |
| \(cp_{ARN}\) |
-0.052 |
0.042 |
-0.129 |
0.030 |
| \(cp_{BAY}\) |
-0.059 |
0.028 |
-0.110 |
-0.002 |
| \(cp_{BON}\) |
-0.066 |
0.029 |
-0.120 |
-0.003 |
| \(cp_{CAD}\) |
0.058 |
0.027 |
0.001 |
0.105 |
| \(cp_{CAR}\) |
-0.052 |
0.027 |
-0.099 |
0.002 |
| \(cp_{CAS}\) |
0.061 |
0.026 |
0.004 |
0.108 |
| \(cp_{CEN}\) |
-0.079 |
0.036 |
-0.142 |
-0.002 |
| \(cp_{COC}\) |
-0.051 |
0.029 |
-0.102 |
0.005 |
| \(cp_{COM}\) |
-0.041 |
0.038 |
-0.110 |
0.034 |
| \(cp_{CUE}\) |
-0.047 |
0.028 |
-0.098 |
0.007 |
| \(cp_{HOU}\) |
0.045 |
0.032 |
-0.018 |
0.103 |
| \(cp_{LAM}\) |
0.070 |
0.033 |
0.003 |
0.128 |
| \(cp_{LEI}\) |
0.080 |
0.043 |
-0.002 |
0.165 |
| \(cp_{MAD}\) |
-0.104 |
0.071 |
-0.243 |
0.022 |
| \(cp_{MIM}\) |
0.056 |
0.037 |
-0.016 |
0.120 |
| \(cp_{OLB}\) |
-0.018 |
0.015 |
-0.048 |
0.010 |
| \(cp_{OLO}\) |
0.050 |
0.033 |
-0.015 |
0.109 |
| \(cp_{ORI}\) |
-0.064 |
0.034 |
-0.121 |
0.004 |
| \(cp_{PET}\) |
0.057 |
0.038 |
-0.017 |
0.123 |
| \(cp_{PIA}\) |
0.050 |
0.038 |
-0.021 |
0.130 |
| \(cp_{PIE}\) |
-0.002 |
0.021 |
-0.045 |
0.039 |
| \(cp_{PLE}\) |
0.040 |
0.035 |
-0.029 |
0.103 |
| \(cp_{PUE}\) |
0.064 |
0.028 |
0.004 |
0.115 |
| \(cp_{QUA}\) |
0.026 |
0.035 |
-0.042 |
0.095 |
| \(cp_{SAC}\) |
0.005 |
0.042 |
-0.080 |
0.087 |
| \(cp_{SAL}\) |
-0.066 |
0.032 |
-0.128 |
-0.002 |
| \(cp_{SEG}\) |
0.032 |
0.032 |
-0.029 |
0.098 |
| \(cp_{SIE}\) |
0.055 |
0.026 |
0.001 |
0.100 |
| \(cp_{STJ}\) |
0.049 |
0.033 |
-0.014 |
0.106 |
| \(cp_{TAM}\) |
-0.124 |
0.060 |
-0.233 |
-0.003 |
| \(cp_{VAL}\) |
-0.059 |
0.032 |
-0.114 |
0.004 |
| \(cp_{VER}\) |
0.050 |
0.033 |
-0.011 |
0.111 |
Figs
>> Fig. Prov, GenePool & ProvClim intercepts
In the manuscript.

MODEL M7
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.310 |
0.403 |
5.518 |
7.147 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.599 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.604 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.151 |
0.003 |
-0.156 |
-0.146 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.041 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.056 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.189 |
0.101 |
0.090 |
0.438 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.528 |
0.379 |
0.189 |
1.501 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.038 |
0.023 |
0.011 |
0.094 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.033 |
0.022 |
0.004 |
0.086 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) |
0.152 |
0.079 |
0.073 |
0.368 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.322 |
0.001 |
0.319 |
0.325 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.046 |
0.100 |
0.008 |
0.192 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.422 |
0.992 |
0.036 |
2.252 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.002 |
0.005 |
0.000 |
0.009 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.002 |
0.003 |
0.000 |
0.007 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) |
0.029 |
0.048 |
0.005 |
0.135 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.104 |
0.001 |
0.102 |
0.106 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.310 |
0.403 |
5.518 |
7.147 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.599 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.604 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.151 |
0.003 |
-0.156 |
-0.146 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Gene pool intercepts
Table
| \(g_{NA}\) |
-0.216 |
0.09 |
-0.384 |
-0.043 |
| \(g_{C}\) |
0.041 |
0.09 |
-0.121 |
0.218 |
| \(g_{CS}\) |
-0.083 |
0.09 |
-0.247 |
0.093 |
| \(g_{FA}\) |
0.158 |
0.09 |
-0.004 |
0.336 |
| \(g_{IA}\) |
0.099 |
0.09 |
-0.065 |
0.277 |
| \(g_{SES}\) |
0.021 |
0.09 |
-0.142 |
0.196 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Density ridges

Maximum temperature of the warmest month
Table
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) |
0.004 |
0.005 |
-0.006 |
0.015 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) |
-0.006 |
0.007 |
-0.019 |
0.008 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) |
0.012 |
0.020 |
-0.025 |
0.054 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) |
0.056 |
0.021 |
0.014 |
0.096 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) |
0.011 |
0.005 |
0.000 |
0.021 |
Figs

Minimum precipitation of the driest month
Table
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) |
0.003 |
0.006 |
-0.009 |
0.015 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) |
0.012 |
0.008 |
-0.002 |
0.028 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) |
0.021 |
0.020 |
-0.010 |
0.067 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) |
0.045 |
0.022 |
0.002 |
0.084 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) |
0.005 |
0.006 |
-0.006 |
0.017 |
Figs

gPEAs
= global Positive effect alleles
Table
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Asturias}\) |
0.090 |
0.004 |
0.083 |
0.096 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Bordeaux}\) |
0.096 |
0.005 |
0.087 |
0.105 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Caceres}\) |
0.102 |
0.020 |
0.063 |
0.142 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Madrid}\) |
0.117 |
0.011 |
0.095 |
0.140 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Portugal}\) |
0.110 |
0.003 |
0.104 |
0.117 |
Figs

MODEL M8
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.329 |
0.353 |
5.631 |
7.034 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.599 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.604 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.151 |
0.003 |
-0.156 |
-0.146 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.040 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.055 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.208 |
0.103 |
0.096 |
0.477 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.533 |
0.401 |
0.203 |
1.533 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.064 |
0.032 |
0.028 |
0.141 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.049 |
0.026 |
0.019 |
0.117 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) |
0.203 |
0.109 |
0.098 |
0.449 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.319 |
0.001 |
0.317 |
0.322 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.054 |
0.078 |
0.009 |
0.228 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.445 |
1.548 |
0.041 |
2.349 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.005 |
0.009 |
0.001 |
0.020 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.003 |
0.005 |
0.000 |
0.014 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) |
0.053 |
0.133 |
0.010 |
0.202 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.102 |
0.001 |
0.100 |
0.104 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.329 |
0.353 |
5.631 |
7.034 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.599 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.604 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.151 |
0.003 |
-0.156 |
-0.146 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Gene pool intercepts
Table
| \(g_{NA}\) |
-0.241 |
0.093 |
-0.441 |
-0.065 |
| \(g_{C}\) |
0.065 |
0.092 |
-0.131 |
0.242 |
| \(g_{CS}\) |
-0.089 |
0.092 |
-0.288 |
0.088 |
| \(g_{FA}\) |
0.161 |
0.093 |
-0.031 |
0.340 |
| \(g_{IA}\) |
0.117 |
0.092 |
-0.079 |
0.295 |
| \(g_{SES}\) |
-0.013 |
0.093 |
-0.210 |
0.167 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Density ridges

Maximum temperature of the warmest month
Table
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) |
0.008 |
0.005 |
-0.003 |
0.019 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) |
-0.002 |
0.007 |
-0.016 |
0.012 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) |
0.034 |
0.024 |
-0.010 |
0.082 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) |
0.100 |
0.018 |
0.064 |
0.136 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) |
0.013 |
0.005 |
0.003 |
0.024 |
Figs

Minimum precipitation of the driest month
Table
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) |
-0.006 |
0.006 |
-0.019 |
0.006 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) |
0.023 |
0.008 |
0.008 |
0.039 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) |
0.023 |
0.022 |
-0.018 |
0.067 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) |
0.064 |
0.018 |
0.029 |
0.098 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) |
-0.006 |
0.006 |
-0.019 |
0.006 |
Figs

rPEAs
Table
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Asturias}\) |
0.106 |
0.004 |
0.098 |
0.113 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Bordeaux}\) |
0.114 |
0.005 |
0.104 |
0.123 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Caceres}\) |
0.140 |
0.021 |
0.098 |
0.182 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Madrid}\) |
0.199 |
0.012 |
0.175 |
0.223 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Portugal}\) |
0.128 |
0.004 |
0.121 |
0.135 |
Figs

Model M9
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.219 |
0.237 |
5.708 |
6.637 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.601 |
0.003 |
0.596 |
0.607 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.153 |
0.003 |
-0.158 |
-0.148 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.178 |
0.093 |
0.086 |
0.413 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.404 |
0.294 |
0.164 |
1.160 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.042 |
0.007 |
0.030 |
0.058 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.337 |
0.002 |
0.334 |
0.340 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.041 |
0.077 |
0.007 |
0.170 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.250 |
0.921 |
0.027 |
1.346 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.114 |
0.001 |
0.112 |
0.116 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.219 |
0.237 |
5.708 |
6.637 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.601 |
0.003 |
0.596 |
0.607 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.153 |
0.003 |
-0.158 |
-0.148 |
Figs

Gene pool intercepts
Table
Mean
| \(g_{NA}\) |
-0.206 |
0.085 |
-0.372 |
-0.029 |
| \(g_{C}\) |
0.060 |
0.085 |
-0.101 |
0.238 |
| \(g_{CS}\) |
-0.078 |
0.085 |
-0.241 |
0.101 |
| \(g_{FA}\) |
0.147 |
0.085 |
-0.017 |
0.324 |
| \(g_{IA}\) |
0.084 |
0.085 |
-0.077 |
0.262 |
| \(g_{SES}\) |
0.017 |
0.085 |
-0.145 |
0.195 |
Figs

MODEL M10
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.170 |
0.399 |
5.237 |
6.869 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.601 |
0.003 |
0.596 |
0.607 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.153 |
0.003 |
-0.159 |
-0.148 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.042 |
0.007 |
0.031 |
0.058 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.524 |
0.374 |
0.184 |
1.550 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.079 |
0.046 |
0.036 |
0.182 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.088 |
0.058 |
0.037 |
0.214 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.339 |
0.002 |
0.336 |
0.342 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.414 |
0.909 |
0.034 |
2.404 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.008 |
0.032 |
0.001 |
0.033 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.011 |
0.063 |
0.001 |
0.046 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.115 |
0.001 |
0.113 |
0.117 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.170 |
0.399 |
5.237 |
6.869 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.601 |
0.003 |
0.596 |
0.607 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.153 |
0.003 |
-0.159 |
-0.148 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Maximum temperature of the warmest month
Table
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) |
-0.057 |
0.005 |
-0.067 |
-0.047 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) |
-0.070 |
0.007 |
-0.083 |
-0.056 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) |
-0.045 |
0.024 |
-0.092 |
0.002 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) |
0.016 |
0.018 |
-0.019 |
0.051 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) |
-0.053 |
0.005 |
-0.062 |
-0.044 |
Figs

Minimum precipitation of the driest month
Table
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) |
0.035 |
0.005 |
0.025 |
0.044 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) |
0.046 |
0.007 |
0.033 |
0.060 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) |
0.050 |
0.023 |
0.004 |
0.096 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) |
0.091 |
0.017 |
0.057 |
0.125 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) |
0.033 |
0.005 |
0.024 |
0.042 |
Figs

Both

Model M11
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.308 |
0.763 |
4.768 |
7.742 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.599 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.604 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.151 |
0.003 |
-0.156 |
-0.146 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.042 |
0.007 |
0.031 |
0.058 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.733 |
0.756 |
0.200 |
2.789 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) |
0.130 |
0.075 |
0.061 |
0.304 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.338 |
0.002 |
0.335 |
0.341 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
1.108 |
4.243 |
0.040 |
7.779 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) |
0.023 |
0.056 |
0.004 |
0.092 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.114 |
0.001 |
0.112 |
0.117 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.308 |
0.763 |
4.768 |
7.742 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.599 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.604 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.151 |
0.003 |
-0.156 |
-0.146 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

gPEAs
= global Positive effect alleles
Figs


Model M12
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.641 |
0.499 |
5.735 |
7.663 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.599 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.604 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.151 |
0.003 |
-0.156 |
-0.146 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.042 |
0.007 |
0.030 |
0.058 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.730 |
0.526 |
0.209 |
2.131 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) |
0.172 |
0.082 |
0.082 |
0.389 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.336 |
0.001 |
0.333 |
0.339 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.810 |
1.572 |
0.044 |
4.542 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) |
0.036 |
0.047 |
0.007 |
0.152 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.113 |
0.001 |
0.111 |
0.115 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.641 |
0.499 |
5.735 |
7.663 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.599 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.604 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.151 |
0.003 |
-0.156 |
-0.146 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

rPEAs
= region-specific Positive effect alleles
Table
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Asturias}\) |
0.099 |
0.004 |
0.091 |
0.107 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Bordeaux}\) |
0.092 |
0.005 |
0.081 |
0.102 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Caceres}\) |
0.120 |
0.021 |
0.079 |
0.161 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Madrid}\) |
0.174 |
0.013 |
0.150 |
0.200 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Portugal}\) |
0.122 |
0.004 |
0.114 |
0.129 |
Figs

