In the Supplementary Information, we will report the medians of the posterior distributions, but both the medians and the means are shown in this document.

The credible intervals used are 95% CI.

In the function 'mcmc_intervals':

1 Model M0

1.1 Main parameters

1.1.1 Standard deviations

1.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.280 0.176 5.942 6.664
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.159 -0.147
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.384 0.230 0.166 0.989
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.044 0.007 0.032 0.061
\(\sigma\) 0.350 0.002 0.347 0.354

1.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.273 0.176 5.942 6.664
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.159 -0.147
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.324 0.230 0.166 0.989
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.043 0.007 0.032 0.061
\(\sigma\) 0.350 0.002 0.347 0.354

1.1.1.3 Figs

1.1.2 Variances

1.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.200 0.370 0.027 0.979
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.004
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.123 0.001 0.121 0.125
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.280 0.176 5.942 6.664
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.159 -0.147

1.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.105 0.370 0.027 0.979
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.004
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.123 0.001 0.121 0.125
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.273 0.176 5.942 6.664
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.159 -0.147

1.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

1.2 Site intercepts

1.2.1 Tables

1.2.1.1 Mean

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(S_{Asturias}\) 0.267 0.176 -0.129 0.607
\(S_{Bordeaux}\) 0.133 0.176 -0.257 0.485
\(S_{Caceres}\) 0.061 0.176 -0.343 0.392
\(S_{Madrid}\) -0.367 0.176 -0.749 -0.025
\(S_{Portugal}\) -0.126 0.177 -0.515 0.217

1.2.1.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(S_{Asturias}\) 0.274 0.176 -0.129 0.607
\(S_{Bordeaux}\) 0.142 0.176 -0.257 0.485
\(S_{Caceres}\) 0.067 0.176 -0.343 0.392
\(S_{Madrid}\) -0.359 0.176 -0.749 -0.025
\(S_{Portugal}\) -0.119 0.177 -0.515 0.217

1.2.2 Figs

1.2.2.1 MCMC intervals

1.2.2.2 Density ridges

In the Supplementary Information.

2 Model M1

2.1 Main parameters

2.1.1 Standard deviations

2.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.246 0.193 5.842 6.643
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.598 0.003 0.592 0.603
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.150 0.003 -0.155 -0.145
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.115 0.016 0.090 0.152
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.394 0.241 0.168 1.023
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.041 0.007 0.030 0.055
\(\sigma\) 0.313 0.001 0.310 0.316

2.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.247 0.193 5.842 6.643
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.598 0.003 0.592 0.603
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.150 0.003 -0.155 -0.145
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.113 0.016 0.090 0.152
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.329 0.241 0.168 1.023
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.030 0.055
\(\sigma\) 0.313 0.001 0.310 0.316

2.1.1.3 Figs

2.1.2 Variances

2.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.014 0.004 0.008 0.023
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.213 0.444 0.028 1.046
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.098 0.001 0.096 0.100
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.246 0.193 5.842 6.643
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.598 0.003 0.592 0.603
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.150 0.003 -0.155 -0.145

2.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.013 0.004 0.008 0.023
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.108 0.444 0.028 1.046
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.098 0.001 0.096 0.100
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.247 0.193 5.842 6.643
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.598 0.003 0.592 0.603
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.150 0.003 -0.155 -0.145

2.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

2.2 Site intercepts

2.2.1 Tables

2.2.1.1 Mean

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(S_{Asturias}\) 0.293 0.193 -0.103 0.690
\(S_{Bordeaux}\) 0.153 0.193 -0.254 0.555
\(S_{Caceres}\) 0.042 0.194 -0.366 0.443
\(S_{Madrid}\) -0.376 0.193 -0.780 0.019
\(S_{Portugal}\) -0.108 0.193 -0.513 0.288

2.2.1.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(S_{Asturias}\) 0.292 0.193 -0.103 0.690
\(S_{Bordeaux}\) 0.151 0.193 -0.254 0.555
\(S_{Caceres}\) 0.041 0.194 -0.366 0.443
\(S_{Madrid}\) -0.376 0.193 -0.780 0.019
\(S_{Portugal}\) -0.110 0.193 -0.513 0.288

2.2.2 Figs

2.2.2.1 MCMC intervals

2.2.2.2 Density ridges

In the Supplementary Information.

2.3 Conditional effect of age

In the Supplementary Information.

2.4 Provenance intercepts

2.4.1 Table

2.4.1.1 Mean

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(P_{ALT}\) 0.089 0.041 0.009 0.168
\(P_{ARM}\) 0.121 0.043 0.039 0.205
\(P_{ARN}\) -0.093 0.032 -0.158 -0.031
\(P_{BAY}\) -0.135 0.033 -0.196 -0.072
\(P_{BON}\) -0.040 0.042 -0.121 0.041
\(P_{CAD}\) 0.061 0.040 -0.016 0.142
\(P_{CAR}\) -0.162 0.047 -0.254 -0.071
\(P_{CAS}\) 0.054 0.041 -0.026 0.132
\(P_{CEN}\) 0.011 0.042 -0.073 0.093
\(P_{COC}\) -0.154 0.034 -0.222 -0.088
\(P_{COM}\) 0.076 0.054 -0.033 0.181
\(P_{CUE}\) -0.171 0.030 -0.233 -0.113
\(P_{HOU}\) 0.162 0.030 0.102 0.220
\(P_{LAM}\) 0.014 0.040 -0.064 0.093
\(P_{LEI}\) 0.038 0.032 -0.023 0.101
\(P_{MAD}\) 0.021 0.083 -0.146 0.181
\(P_{MIM}\) 0.005 0.034 -0.061 0.071
\(P_{OLB}\) 0.047 0.031 -0.013 0.108
\(P_{OLO}\) 0.141 0.032 0.078 0.204
\(P_{ORI}\) -0.121 0.030 -0.180 -0.062
\(P_{PET}\) 0.123 0.030 0.065 0.182
\(P_{PIA}\) 0.089 0.034 0.023 0.154
\(P_{PIE}\) -0.078 0.042 -0.163 0.002
\(P_{PLE}\) 0.000 0.032 -0.062 0.063
\(P_{PUE}\) 0.073 0.044 -0.011 0.161
\(P_{QUA}\) 0.020 0.034 -0.046 0.089
\(P_{SAC}\) -0.034 0.042 -0.115 0.047
\(P_{SAL}\) -0.171 0.036 -0.244 -0.100
\(P_{SEG}\) 0.007 0.031 -0.052 0.070
\(P_{SIE}\) 0.002 0.042 -0.078 0.086
\(P_{STJ}\) 0.172 0.029 0.117 0.231
\(P_{TAM}\) -0.226 0.036 -0.297 -0.153
\(P_{VAL}\) -0.047 0.038 -0.120 0.027
\(P_{VER}\) 0.106 0.030 0.047 0.165

2.4.1.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(P_{ALT}\) 0.089 0.041 0.009 0.168
\(P_{ARM}\) 0.121 0.043 0.039 0.205
\(P_{ARN}\) -0.093 0.032 -0.158 -0.031
\(P_{BAY}\) -0.135 0.033 -0.196 -0.072
\(P_{BON}\) -0.040 0.042 -0.121 0.041
\(P_{CAD}\) 0.061 0.040 -0.016 0.142
\(P_{CAR}\) -0.162 0.047 -0.254 -0.071
\(P_{CAS}\) 0.054 0.041 -0.026 0.132
\(P_{CEN}\) 0.011 0.042 -0.073 0.093
\(P_{COC}\) -0.154 0.034 -0.222 -0.088
\(P_{COM}\) 0.076 0.054 -0.033 0.181
\(P_{CUE}\) -0.171 0.030 -0.233 -0.113
\(P_{HOU}\) 0.162 0.030 0.102 0.220
\(P_{LAM}\) 0.014 0.040 -0.064 0.093
\(P_{LEI}\) 0.038 0.032 -0.023 0.101
\(P_{MAD}\) 0.021 0.083 -0.146 0.181
\(P_{MIM}\) 0.005 0.034 -0.061 0.071
\(P_{OLB}\) 0.047 0.031 -0.013 0.108
\(P_{OLO}\) 0.141 0.032 0.078 0.204
\(P_{ORI}\) -0.121 0.030 -0.180 -0.062
\(P_{PET}\) 0.123 0.030 0.065 0.182
\(P_{PIA}\) 0.089 0.034 0.023 0.154
\(P_{PIE}\) -0.078 0.042 -0.163 0.002
\(P_{PLE}\) 0.000 0.032 -0.062 0.063
\(P_{PUE}\) 0.073 0.044 -0.011 0.161
\(P_{QUA}\) 0.020 0.034 -0.046 0.089
\(P_{SAC}\) -0.034 0.042 -0.115 0.047
\(P_{SAL}\) -0.171 0.036 -0.244 -0.100
\(P_{SEG}\) 0.007 0.031 -0.052 0.070
\(P_{SIE}\) 0.002 0.042 -0.078 0.086
\(P_{STJ}\) 0.172 0.029 0.117 0.231
\(P_{TAM}\) -0.226 0.036 -0.297 -0.153
\(P_{VAL}\) -0.047 0.038 -0.120 0.027
\(P_{VER}\) 0.106 0.030 0.047 0.165

2.4.2 Figs

2.4.2.1 Density Ridges

3 Model M2

3.1 Main parameters

3.1.1 Standard deviations

3.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.216 0.285 5.753 6.670
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.597 0.003 0.592 0.602
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.150 0.002 -0.155 -0.145
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.109 0.017 0.081 0.147
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.117
\(\sigma_{Inter}\) 0.063 0.007 0.051 0.077
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.426 0.377 0.172 1.193
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.029 0.056
\(\sigma\) 0.311 0.001 0.308 0.313

3.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.231 0.285 5.753 6.670
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.597 0.003 0.592 0.602
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.150 0.002 -0.155 -0.145
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.107 0.017 0.081 0.147
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.117
\(\sigma_{Inter}\) 0.062 0.007 0.051 0.077
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.336 0.377 0.172 1.193
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.029 0.056
\(\sigma\) 0.311 0.001 0.308 0.313

3.1.1.3 Figs

3.1.2 Variances

3.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.012 0.004 0.007 0.022
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.014
\(\sigma^{2}_{Inter}\) 0.004 0.001 0.003 0.006
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.324 1.525 0.030 1.423
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.096 0.001 0.095 0.098
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.216 0.285 5.753 6.670
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.597 0.003 0.592 0.602
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.150 0.002 -0.155 -0.145

3.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.011 0.004 0.007 0.022
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.014
\(\sigma^{2}_{Inter}\) 0.004 0.001 0.003 0.006
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.113 1.525 0.030 1.423
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.096 0.001 0.095 0.098
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.231 0.285 5.753 6.670
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.597 0.003 0.592 0.602
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.150 0.002 -0.155 -0.145

3.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

3.2 Site intercepts

3.2.1 Tables

3.2.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(S_{Asturias}\) 0.327 0.286 -0.118 0.788
\(S_{Bordeaux}\) 0.174 0.286 -0.269 0.632
\(S_{Caceres}\) 0.060 0.286 -0.394 0.532
\(S_{Madrid}\) -0.359 0.286 -0.809 0.117
\(S_{Portugal}\) -0.082 0.286 -0.531 0.382

3.2.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(S_{Asturias}\) 0.311 0.286 -0.118 0.788
\(S_{Bordeaux}\) 0.161 0.286 -0.269 0.632
\(S_{Caceres}\) 0.046 0.286 -0.394 0.532
\(S_{Madrid}\) -0.372 0.286 -0.809 0.117
\(S_{Portugal}\) -0.095 0.286 -0.531 0.382

3.2.2 Figs

3.2.2.1 MCMC intervals

3.3 Provenance intercepts

3.3.1 ALL

3.3.2 Portugal

3.3.3 Caceres

3.3.4 Madrid

3.3.5 Bordeaux

3.3.6 Asturias

3.3.7 Merging the plots

In the Supplementary Information.

4 Model M3

4.1 Main parameters

4.1.1 Standard deviations

4.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.315 0.315 5.825 6.808
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.603 0.013 0.577 0.625
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.187 0.016 -0.223 -0.157
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.115 0.016 0.089 0.152
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.456 0.411 0.164 1.377
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.187 0.161 0.054 0.524
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.041 0.007 0.030 0.056
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.309 0.315

4.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.295 0.315 5.825 6.808
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.604 0.013 0.577 0.625
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.186 0.016 -0.223 -0.157
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.114 0.016 0.089 0.152
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.355 0.411 0.164 1.377
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.151 0.161 0.054 0.524
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.030 0.056
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.309 0.315

4.1.1.3 Figs

4.1.2 Variances

4.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.014 0.004 0.008 0.023
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.377 1.694 0.027 1.895
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.061 0.314 0.003 0.274
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.097 0.001 0.096 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.315 0.315 5.825 6.808
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.603 0.013 0.577 0.625
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.187 0.016 -0.223 -0.157

4.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.013 0.004 0.008 0.023
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.126 1.694 0.027 1.895
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.023 0.314 0.003 0.274
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.097 0.001 0.096 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.295 0.315 5.825 6.808
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.604 0.013 0.577 0.625
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.186 0.016 -0.223 -0.157

4.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

4.2 Site intercepts

4.2.1 Tables

4.2.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(S_{Asturias}\) 0.271 0.326 -0.248 0.809
\(S_{Bordeaux}\) 0.154 0.341 -0.382 0.726
\(S_{Caceres}\) 0.067 0.341 -0.520 0.596
\(S_{Madrid}\) -0.375 0.321 -0.902 0.092
\(S_{Portugal}\) -0.185 0.320 -0.717 0.291

4.2.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(S_{Asturias}\) 0.283 0.326 -0.248 0.809
\(S_{Bordeaux}\) 0.164 0.341 -0.382 0.726
\(S_{Caceres}\) 0.086 0.341 -0.520 0.596
\(S_{Madrid}\) -0.349 0.321 -0.902 0.092
\(S_{Portugal}\) -0.162 0.320 -0.717 0.291

4.2.2 Figs

4.2.2.1 MCMC intervals

4.3 Intercepts of the annual climate in the test sites

4.3.1 Tables

4.3.1.1 Mean

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(cs_{1,Asturias}\) 0.013 0.076 -0.139 0.168
\(cs_{2,Asturias}\) -0.027 0.085 -0.198 0.141
\(cs_{3,Asturias}\) 0.016 0.040 -0.047 0.114
\(cs_{1,Bordeaux}\) -0.107 0.126 -0.353 0.160
\(cs_{2,Bordeaux}\) 0.052 0.084 -0.096 0.246
\(cs_{1,Caceres}\) -0.014 0.145 -0.347 0.242
\(cs_{1,Madrid}\) -0.036 0.064 -0.166 0.095
\(cs_{1,Portugal}\) 0.027 0.055 -0.089 0.132
\(cs_{2,Portugal}\) 0.065 0.051 -0.040 0.165
\(cs_{3,Portugal}\) 0.032 0.048 -0.072 0.123
\(cs_{4,Portugal}\) -0.019 0.061 -0.142 0.103

4.3.1.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(cs_{1,Asturias}\) 0.012 0.076 -0.139 0.168
\(cs_{2,Asturias}\) -0.027 0.085 -0.198 0.141
\(cs_{3,Asturias}\) 0.010 0.040 -0.047 0.114
\(cs_{1,Bordeaux}\) -0.109 0.126 -0.353 0.160
\(cs_{2,Bordeaux}\) 0.043 0.084 -0.096 0.246
\(cs_{1,Caceres}\) -0.001 0.145 -0.347 0.242
\(cs_{1,Madrid}\) -0.035 0.064 -0.166 0.095
\(cs_{1,Portugal}\) 0.028 0.055 -0.089 0.132
\(cs_{2,Portugal}\) 0.065 0.051 -0.040 0.165
\(cs_{3,Portugal}\) 0.033 0.048 -0.072 0.123
\(cs_{4,Portugal}\) -0.019 0.061 -0.142 0.103

4.3.2 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

4.4 Provenance intercepts

4.4.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(P_{ALT}\) 0.090 0.042 0.007 0.170
\(P_{ARM}\) 0.124 0.043 0.040 0.208
\(P_{ARN}\) -0.094 0.033 -0.158 -0.030
\(P_{BAY}\) -0.134 0.033 -0.197 -0.067
\(P_{BON}\) -0.040 0.042 -0.123 0.045
\(P_{CAD}\) 0.064 0.040 -0.014 0.143
\(P_{CAR}\) -0.160 0.048 -0.258 -0.067
\(P_{CAS}\) 0.055 0.039 -0.021 0.133
\(P_{CEN}\) 0.011 0.041 -0.073 0.092
\(P_{COC}\) -0.152 0.033 -0.215 -0.090
\(P_{COM}\) 0.076 0.055 -0.031 0.182
\(P_{CUE}\) -0.171 0.030 -0.229 -0.114
\(P_{HOU}\) 0.163 0.029 0.108 0.219
\(P_{LAM}\) 0.014 0.041 -0.065 0.098
\(P_{LEI}\) 0.040 0.030 -0.019 0.100
\(P_{MAD}\) 0.021 0.081 -0.138 0.181
\(P_{MIM}\) 0.007 0.033 -0.059 0.071
\(P_{OLB}\) 0.048 0.032 -0.014 0.110
\(P_{OLO}\) 0.141 0.030 0.083 0.201
\(P_{ORI}\) -0.122 0.030 -0.180 -0.063
\(P_{PET}\) 0.126 0.031 0.066 0.186
\(P_{PIA}\) 0.088 0.034 0.020 0.153
\(P_{PIE}\) -0.080 0.040 -0.160 -0.003
\(P_{PLE}\) -0.001 0.033 -0.066 0.062
\(P_{PUE}\) 0.076 0.043 -0.007 0.160
\(P_{QUA}\) 0.020 0.033 -0.042 0.086
\(P_{SAC}\) -0.033 0.041 -0.112 0.049
\(P_{SAL}\) -0.171 0.036 -0.243 -0.102
\(P_{SEG}\) 0.007 0.032 -0.055 0.070
\(P_{SIE}\) 0.002 0.042 -0.077 0.084
\(P_{STJ}\) 0.172 0.029 0.115 0.230
\(P_{TAM}\) -0.225 0.035 -0.294 -0.155
\(P_{VAL}\) -0.045 0.037 -0.119 0.027
\(P_{VER}\) 0.108 0.030 0.047 0.165

4.4.2 Figs

5 Model M3bis

5.1 Main parameters

5.1.1 Standard deviations

5.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.284 0.036 6.213 6.356
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.630 0.008 0.614 0.645
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.010 -0.172 -0.134
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.174 0.025 0.132 0.231
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.115 0.016 0.089 0.149
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.188 0.109 0.076 0.479
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.309 0.315

5.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.284 0.036 6.213 6.356
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.630 0.008 0.614 0.645
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.010 -0.172 -0.134
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.171 0.025 0.132 0.231
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.114 0.016 0.089 0.149
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.159 0.109 0.076 0.479
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.309 0.315

5.1.1.3 Figs

5.1.2 Variances

5.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.031 0.009 0.017 0.053
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.014 0.004 0.008 0.022
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.047 0.083 0.006 0.229
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.097 0.001 0.096 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.284 0.036 6.213 6.356
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.630 0.008 0.614 0.645
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.010 -0.172 -0.134

5.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.029 0.009 0.017 0.053
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.013 0.004 0.008 0.022
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.025 0.083 0.006 0.229
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.097 0.001 0.096 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.284 0.036 6.213 6.356
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.630 0.008 0.614 0.645
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.010 -0.172 -0.134

5.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

5.2 Intercepts of the annual climate in the test sites

5.2.1 Tables

5.2.1.1 Mean

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(cs_{1,Asturias}\) 0.132 0.026 0.080 0.180
\(cs_{2,Asturias}\) 0.117 0.030 0.054 0.172
\(cs_{3,Asturias}\) 0.027 0.020 -0.009 0.069
\(cs_{1,Bordeaux}\) 0.083 0.042 -0.003 0.162
\(cs_{2,Bordeaux}\) 0.134 0.031 0.076 0.195
\(cs_{1,Caceres}\) -0.158 0.053 -0.264 -0.057
\(cs_{1,Madrid}\) -0.140 0.030 -0.198 -0.082
\(cs_{1,Portugal}\) -0.047 0.022 -0.088 -0.004
\(cs_{2,Portugal}\) -0.007 0.023 -0.051 0.041
\(cs_{3,Portugal}\) -0.028 0.020 -0.066 0.011
\(cs_{4,Portugal}\) -0.114 0.028 -0.168 -0.056

5.2.1.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(cs_{1,Asturias}\) 0.133 0.026 0.080 0.180
\(cs_{2,Asturias}\) 0.117 0.030 0.054 0.172
\(cs_{3,Asturias}\) 0.026 0.020 -0.009 0.069
\(cs_{1,Bordeaux}\) 0.085 0.042 -0.003 0.162
\(cs_{2,Bordeaux}\) 0.134 0.031 0.076 0.195
\(cs_{1,Caceres}\) -0.158 0.053 -0.264 -0.057
\(cs_{1,Madrid}\) -0.140 0.030 -0.198 -0.082
\(cs_{1,Portugal}\) -0.047 0.022 -0.088 -0.004
\(cs_{2,Portugal}\) -0.007 0.023 -0.051 0.041
\(cs_{3,Portugal}\) -0.028 0.020 -0.066 0.011
\(cs_{4,Portugal}\) -0.114 0.028 -0.168 -0.056

5.2.2 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

5.3 Provenance intercepts

5.3.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(P_{ALT}\) 0.090 0.041 0.010 0.171
\(P_{ARM}\) 0.121 0.043 0.037 0.205
\(P_{ARN}\) -0.093 0.034 -0.161 -0.026
\(P_{BAY}\) -0.135 0.033 -0.199 -0.070
\(P_{BON}\) -0.040 0.041 -0.122 0.040
\(P_{CAD}\) 0.062 0.040 -0.017 0.141
\(P_{CAR}\) -0.163 0.048 -0.258 -0.073
\(P_{CAS}\) 0.054 0.039 -0.023 0.130
\(P_{CEN}\) 0.010 0.041 -0.068 0.090
\(P_{COC}\) -0.153 0.033 -0.219 -0.088
\(P_{COM}\) 0.078 0.056 -0.031 0.191
\(P_{CUE}\) -0.172 0.029 -0.228 -0.116
\(P_{HOU}\) 0.162 0.030 0.105 0.221
\(P_{LAM}\) 0.013 0.041 -0.069 0.090
\(P_{LEI}\) 0.039 0.030 -0.020 0.098
\(P_{MAD}\) 0.021 0.084 -0.141 0.190
\(P_{MIM}\) 0.006 0.034 -0.059 0.074
\(P_{OLB}\) 0.047 0.031 -0.015 0.107
\(P_{OLO}\) 0.141 0.030 0.081 0.202
\(P_{ORI}\) -0.122 0.030 -0.181 -0.066
\(P_{PET}\) 0.124 0.030 0.063 0.185
\(P_{PIA}\) 0.091 0.036 0.020 0.160
\(P_{PIE}\) -0.078 0.041 -0.157 0.002
\(P_{PLE}\) -0.001 0.032 -0.062 0.064
\(P_{PUE}\) 0.075 0.043 -0.008 0.158
\(P_{QUA}\) 0.018 0.034 -0.049 0.087
\(P_{SAC}\) -0.033 0.042 -0.116 0.049
\(P_{SAL}\) -0.171 0.035 -0.239 -0.102
\(P_{SEG}\) 0.006 0.032 -0.057 0.069
\(P_{SIE}\) 0.002 0.043 -0.082 0.085
\(P_{STJ}\) 0.172 0.030 0.114 0.231
\(P_{TAM}\) -0.226 0.035 -0.297 -0.156
\(P_{VAL}\) -0.048 0.038 -0.119 0.025
\(P_{VER}\) 0.105 0.030 0.049 0.164

5.3.2 Figs

6 Model M4

6.1 Main parameters

6.1.1 Standard deviations

6.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.278 0.269 5.704 6.811
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.604 0.012 0.577 0.626
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.186 0.016 -0.221 -0.156
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.131 0.074 0.049 0.305
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.082 0.014 0.058 0.113
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.463 0.383 0.163 1.458
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.185 0.135 0.053 0.516
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.041 0.007 0.029 0.055
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.309 0.315

6.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.280 0.269 5.704 6.811
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.605 0.012 0.577 0.626
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.185 0.016 -0.221 -0.156
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.114 0.074 0.049 0.305
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.080 0.014 0.058 0.113
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.357 0.383 0.163 1.458
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.150 0.135 0.053 0.516
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.029 0.055
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.309 0.315

6.1.1.3 Figs

6.1.2 Variances

6.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.023 0.044 0.002 0.093
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.007 0.003 0.003 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.361 1.365 0.026 2.125
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.053 0.187 0.003 0.267
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.097 0.001 0.095 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.278 0.269 5.704 6.811
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.604 0.012 0.577 0.626
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.186 0.016 -0.221 -0.156

6.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.013 0.044 0.002 0.093
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.006 0.003 0.003 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.013
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.127 1.365 0.026 2.125
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.022 0.187 0.003 0.267
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.097 0.001 0.095 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.280 0.269 5.704 6.811
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.605 0.012 0.577 0.626
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.185 0.016 -0.221 -0.156

6.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

6.2 Provenance intercepts

6.2.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(P_{ALT}\) 0.054 0.041 -0.027 0.136
\(P_{ARM}\) 0.079 0.044 -0.004 0.170
\(P_{ARN}\) -0.028 0.036 -0.100 0.042
\(P_{BAY}\) -0.070 0.036 -0.142 0.000
\(P_{BON}\) 0.023 0.041 -0.060 0.103
\(P_{CAD}\) 0.027 0.040 -0.048 0.107
\(P_{CAR}\) -0.097 0.048 -0.189 -0.003
\(P_{CAS}\) 0.014 0.042 -0.070 0.100
\(P_{CEN}\) 0.059 0.040 -0.021 0.140
\(P_{COC}\) -0.096 0.034 -0.164 -0.031
\(P_{COM}\) 0.100 0.054 -0.002 0.213
\(P_{CUE}\) -0.115 0.031 -0.177 -0.055
\(P_{HOU}\) 0.070 0.036 0.001 0.141
\(P_{LAM}\) -0.025 0.042 -0.108 0.056
\(P_{LEI}\) 0.051 0.029 -0.007 0.109
\(P_{MAD}\) 0.049 0.071 -0.085 0.190
\(P_{MIM}\) -0.076 0.037 -0.150 -0.005
\(P_{OLB}\) 0.107 0.031 0.044 0.167
\(P_{OLO}\) 0.048 0.038 -0.025 0.123
\(P_{ORI}\) -0.062 0.047 -0.153 0.035
\(P_{PET}\) 0.033 0.038 -0.042 0.107
\(P_{PIA}\) 0.077 0.054 -0.031 0.184
\(P_{PIE}\) -0.079 0.057 -0.195 0.028
\(P_{PLE}\) -0.078 0.036 -0.148 -0.006
\(P_{PUE}\) 0.037 0.044 -0.048 0.127
\(P_{QUA}\) 0.072 0.036 0.001 0.144
\(P_{SAC}\) -0.038 0.039 -0.115 0.039
\(P_{SAL}\) -0.103 0.038 -0.180 -0.030
\(P_{SEG}\) -0.017 0.034 -0.083 0.050
\(P_{SIE}\) -0.025 0.043 -0.111 0.058
\(P_{STJ}\) 0.082 0.036 0.011 0.154
\(P_{TAM}\) -0.097 0.060 -0.215 0.020
\(P_{VAL}\) 0.013 0.038 -0.061 0.089
\(P_{VER}\) 0.015 0.036 -0.055 0.086

6.2.1.1 Figs

6.3 Gene pool intercepts

6.3.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(g_{NA}\) -0.126 0.084 -0.304 0.020
\(g_{C}\) 0.024 0.078 -0.131 0.184
\(g_{CS}\) -0.057 0.069 -0.196 0.077
\(g_{FA}\) 0.112 0.071 -0.021 0.261
\(g_{IA}\) 0.056 0.069 -0.074 0.197
\(g_{SES}\) -0.020 0.084 -0.187 0.149

6.3.2 Figs

7 Model M5

7.1 Main parameters

7.1.1 Standard deviations

7.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.282 0.220 5.819 6.708
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.604 0.012 0.578 0.626
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.186 0.016 -0.221 -0.158
\(\sigma_{A_{NA}}\) 0.125 0.034 0.072 0.203
\(\sigma_{A_{C}}\) 0.161 0.028 0.115 0.224
\(\sigma_{A_{CS}}\) 0.132 0.010 0.114 0.153
\(\sigma_{A_{FA}}\) 0.124 0.009 0.108 0.142
\(\sigma_{A_{IA}}\) 0.106 0.012 0.084 0.131
\(\sigma_{A_{SES}}\) 0.167 0.035 0.107 0.244
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.076 0.069 0.004 0.252
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.105 0.018 0.075 0.145
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.425 0.278 0.161 1.122
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.188 0.130 0.056 0.512
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.029 0.055
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.310 0.315

7.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.289 0.220 5.819 6.708
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.605 0.012 0.578 0.626
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.185 0.016 -0.221 -0.158
\(\sigma_{A_{NA}}\) 0.120 0.034 0.072 0.203
\(\sigma_{A_{C}}\) 0.157 0.028 0.115 0.224
\(\sigma_{A_{CS}}\) 0.131 0.010 0.114 0.153
\(\sigma_{A_{FA}}\) 0.123 0.009 0.108 0.142
\(\sigma_{A_{IA}}\) 0.105 0.012 0.084 0.131
\(\sigma_{A_{SES}}\) 0.164 0.035 0.107 0.244
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.059 0.069 0.004 0.252
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.103 0.018 0.075 0.145
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.348 0.278 0.161 1.122
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.153 0.130 0.056 0.512
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.029 0.055
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.310 0.315

7.1.1.3 Figs

7.1.2 Variances

7.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{NA}}\) 0.017 0.010 0.005 0.041
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{C}}\) 0.027 0.010 0.013 0.050
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{CS}}\) 0.018 0.003 0.013 0.024
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{FA}}\) 0.015 0.002 0.012 0.020
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{IA}}\) 0.011 0.003 0.007 0.017
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{SES}}\) 0.029 0.012 0.011 0.059
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.011 0.031 0.000 0.064
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.011 0.004 0.006 0.021
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.258 0.565 0.026 1.259
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.052 0.157 0.003 0.262
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.098 0.001 0.096 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.282 0.220 5.819 6.708
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.604 0.012 0.578 0.626
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.186 0.016 -0.221 -0.158

7.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{NA}}\) 0.015 0.010 0.005 0.041
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{C}}\) 0.025 0.010 0.013 0.050
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{CS}}\) 0.017 0.003 0.013 0.024
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{FA}}\) 0.015 0.002 0.012 0.020
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{IA}}\) 0.011 0.003 0.007 0.017
\(\sigma^{2}_{A_{SES}}\) 0.027 0.012 0.011 0.059
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.004 0.031 0.000 0.064
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.011 0.004 0.006 0.021
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.121 0.565 0.026 1.259
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.024 0.157 0.003 0.262
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.098 0.001 0.096 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.289 0.220 5.819 6.708
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.605 0.012 0.578 0.626
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.185 0.016 -0.221 -0.158

7.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

7.2 Genetic variance

7.2.1 Total genetic variances

7.2.2 Partial genetic values

7.3 Paper figure

8 Model M6

8.1 Main parameters

8.1.1 Standard deviations

8.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.271 0.235 5.777 6.723
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.604 0.013 0.576 0.627
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.187 0.018 -0.224 -0.156
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.068 0.060 0.003 0.224
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.074 0.013 0.051 0.103
\(\sigma_{cp_{p}}\) 0.135 0.166 0.014 0.494
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.441 0.307 0.162 1.198
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.188 0.133 0.054 0.545
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.041 0.007 0.029 0.055
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.309 0.315

8.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.280 0.235 5.777 6.723
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.605 0.013 0.576 0.627
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.185 0.018 -0.224 -0.156
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.053 0.060 0.003 0.224
\(\sigma_{P}\) 0.072 0.013 0.051 0.103
\(\sigma_{cp_{p}}\) 0.094 0.166 0.014 0.494
\(\sigma_{G}\) 0.108 0.004 0.100 0.116
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.358 0.307 0.162 1.198
\(\sigma_{cs_{is}}\) 0.153 0.133 0.054 0.545
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.029 0.055
\(\sigma\) 0.312 0.001 0.309 0.315

8.1.1.3 Figs

8.1.2 Variances

8.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.008 0.018 0.000 0.050
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.006 0.002 0.003 0.011
\(\sigma^{2}_{cp_{p}}\) 0.046 0.291 0.000 0.244
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.014
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.289 0.761 0.026 1.436
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.053 0.111 0.003 0.297
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.097 0.001 0.096 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.271 0.235 5.777 6.723
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.604 0.013 0.576 0.627
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.187 0.018 -0.224 -0.156

8.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.003 0.018 0.000 0.050
\(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) 0.005 0.002 0.003 0.011
\(\sigma^{2}_{cp_{p}}\) 0.009 0.291 0.000 0.244
\(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) 0.012 0.001 0.010 0.014
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.128 0.761 0.026 1.436
\(\sigma^{2}_{cs_{is}}\) 0.023 0.111 0.003 0.297
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.097 0.001 0.096 0.099
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.280 0.235 5.777 6.723
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.605 0.013 0.576 0.627
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.185 0.018 -0.224 -0.156

8.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

8.2 Provenance intercepts

8.2.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(P_{ALT}\) 0.058 0.038 -0.016 0.134
\(P_{ARM}\) 0.089 0.042 0.008 0.172
\(P_{ARN}\) -0.015 0.039 -0.091 0.061
\(P_{BAY}\) -0.048 0.036 -0.119 0.021
\(P_{BON}\) 0.041 0.040 -0.037 0.118
\(P_{CAD}\) 0.007 0.040 -0.075 0.085
\(P_{CAR}\) -0.080 0.044 -0.167 0.007
\(P_{CAS}\) -0.003 0.040 -0.082 0.075
\(P_{CEN}\) 0.091 0.041 0.011 0.171
\(P_{COC}\) -0.074 0.033 -0.142 -0.009
\(P_{COM}\) 0.097 0.054 -0.004 0.206
\(P_{CUE}\) -0.096 0.031 -0.157 -0.036
\(P_{HOU}\) 0.071 0.035 0.004 0.141
\(P_{LAM}\) -0.048 0.041 -0.127 0.035
\(P_{LEI}\) -0.023 0.047 -0.117 0.069
\(P_{MAD}\) 0.054 0.066 -0.076 0.184
\(P_{MIM}\) -0.082 0.036 -0.156 -0.012
\(P_{OLB}\) 0.086 0.035 0.019 0.157
\(P_{OLO}\) 0.047 0.035 -0.022 0.117
\(P_{ORI}\) -0.036 0.041 -0.120 0.042
\(P_{PET}\) 0.025 0.035 -0.044 0.096
\(P_{PIA}\) 0.047 0.053 -0.059 0.151
\(P_{PIE}\) -0.062 0.052 -0.166 0.036
\(P_{PLE}\) -0.073 0.035 -0.143 -0.005
\(P_{PUE}\) 0.014 0.043 -0.068 0.100
\(P_{QUA}\) 0.016 0.044 -0.067 0.104
\(P_{SAC}\) -0.029 0.049 -0.127 0.066
\(P_{SAL}\) -0.076 0.043 -0.165 0.006
\(P_{SEG}\) -0.021 0.039 -0.097 0.053
\(P_{SIE}\) -0.041 0.041 -0.122 0.037
\(P_{STJ}\) 0.079 0.033 0.016 0.144
\(P_{TAM}\) -0.056 0.053 -0.162 0.043
\(P_{VAL}\) 0.030 0.037 -0.042 0.105
\(P_{VER}\) 0.013 0.035 -0.056 0.082

8.2.2 Figs

8.3 Gene pool intercepts

8.3.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(g_{NA}\) -0.045 0.067 -0.205 0.048
\(g_{C}\) 0.001 0.052 -0.105 0.113
\(g_{CS}\) -0.023 0.046 -0.128 0.058
\(g_{FA}\) 0.056 0.060 -0.020 0.199
\(g_{IA}\) 0.014 0.048 -0.068 0.129
\(g_{SES}\) -0.003 0.056 -0.127 0.115

8.3.2 Figs

8.4 Provenance climate intercepts

8.4.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(cp_{ALT}\) 0.022 0.016 -0.009 0.049
\(cp_{ARM}\) 0.014 0.018 -0.022 0.049
\(cp_{ARN}\) -0.052 0.042 -0.129 0.030
\(cp_{BAY}\) -0.059 0.028 -0.110 -0.002
\(cp_{BON}\) -0.066 0.029 -0.120 -0.003
\(cp_{CAD}\) 0.058 0.027 0.001 0.105
\(cp_{CAR}\) -0.052 0.027 -0.099 0.002
\(cp_{CAS}\) 0.061 0.026 0.004 0.108
\(cp_{CEN}\) -0.079 0.036 -0.142 -0.002
\(cp_{COC}\) -0.051 0.029 -0.102 0.005
\(cp_{COM}\) -0.041 0.038 -0.110 0.034
\(cp_{CUE}\) -0.047 0.028 -0.098 0.007
\(cp_{HOU}\) 0.045 0.032 -0.018 0.103
\(cp_{LAM}\) 0.070 0.033 0.003 0.128
\(cp_{LEI}\) 0.080 0.043 -0.002 0.165
\(cp_{MAD}\) -0.104 0.071 -0.243 0.022
\(cp_{MIM}\) 0.056 0.037 -0.016 0.120
\(cp_{OLB}\) -0.018 0.015 -0.048 0.010
\(cp_{OLO}\) 0.050 0.033 -0.015 0.109
\(cp_{ORI}\) -0.064 0.034 -0.121 0.004
\(cp_{PET}\) 0.057 0.038 -0.017 0.123
\(cp_{PIA}\) 0.050 0.038 -0.021 0.130
\(cp_{PIE}\) -0.002 0.021 -0.045 0.039
\(cp_{PLE}\) 0.040 0.035 -0.029 0.103
\(cp_{PUE}\) 0.064 0.028 0.004 0.115
\(cp_{QUA}\) 0.026 0.035 -0.042 0.095
\(cp_{SAC}\) 0.005 0.042 -0.080 0.087
\(cp_{SAL}\) -0.066 0.032 -0.128 -0.002
\(cp_{SEG}\) 0.032 0.032 -0.029 0.098
\(cp_{SIE}\) 0.055 0.026 0.001 0.100
\(cp_{STJ}\) 0.049 0.033 -0.014 0.106
\(cp_{TAM}\) -0.124 0.060 -0.233 -0.003
\(cp_{VAL}\) -0.059 0.032 -0.114 0.004
\(cp_{VER}\) 0.050 0.033 -0.011 0.111

8.4.2 Figs

8.5 >> Fig. Prov, GenePool & ProvClim intercepts

In the manuscript.

9 MODEL M7

9.1 Main parameters

9.1.1 Standard deviations

9.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.310 0.403 5.518 7.147
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.041 0.007 0.029 0.056
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.189 0.101 0.090 0.438
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.528 0.379 0.189 1.501
\(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.038 0.023 0.011 0.094
\(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.033 0.022 0.004 0.086
\(\sigma_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) 0.152 0.079 0.073 0.368
\(\sigma\) 0.322 0.001 0.319 0.325

9.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.303 0.403 5.518 7.147
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.029 0.056
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.164 0.101 0.090 0.438
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.414 0.379 0.189 1.501
\(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.034 0.023 0.011 0.094
\(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.028 0.022 0.004 0.086
\(\sigma_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) 0.133 0.079 0.073 0.368
\(\sigma\) 0.322 0.001 0.319 0.325

9.1.1.3 Figs

9.1.2 Variances

9.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.046 0.100 0.008 0.192
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.422 0.992 0.036 2.252
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.002 0.005 0.000 0.009
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.002 0.003 0.000 0.007
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) 0.029 0.048 0.005 0.135
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.104 0.001 0.102 0.106
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.310 0.403 5.518 7.147
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146

9.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.027 0.100 0.008 0.192
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.172 0.992 0.036 2.252
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.001 0.005 0.000 0.009
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.007
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) 0.018 0.048 0.005 0.135
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.104 0.001 0.102 0.106
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.303 0.403 5.518 7.147
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146

9.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

9.2 Gene pool intercepts

9.2.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(g_{NA}\) -0.216 0.09 -0.384 -0.043
\(g_{C}\) 0.041 0.09 -0.121 0.218
\(g_{CS}\) -0.083 0.09 -0.247 0.093
\(g_{FA}\) 0.158 0.09 -0.004 0.336
\(g_{IA}\) 0.099 0.09 -0.065 0.277
\(g_{SES}\) 0.021 0.09 -0.142 0.196

9.2.2 Figs

9.2.2.1 MCMC intervals

9.2.2.2 Density ridges

9.3 Maximum temperature of the warmest month

9.3.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) 0.004 0.005 -0.006 0.015
\(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) -0.006 0.007 -0.019 0.008
\(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) 0.012 0.020 -0.025 0.054
\(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) 0.056 0.021 0.014 0.096
\(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) 0.011 0.005 0.000 0.021

9.3.2 Figs

9.4 Minimum precipitation of the driest month

9.4.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) 0.003 0.006 -0.009 0.015
\(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) 0.012 0.008 -0.002 0.028
\(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) 0.021 0.020 -0.010 0.067
\(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) 0.045 0.022 0.002 0.084
\(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) 0.005 0.006 -0.006 0.017

9.4.2 Figs

9.5 gPEAs

= global Positive effect alleles

9.5.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{gPEA,Asturias}\) 0.090 0.004 0.083 0.096
\(\beta_{gPEA,Bordeaux}\) 0.096 0.005 0.087 0.105
\(\beta_{gPEA,Caceres}\) 0.102 0.020 0.063 0.142
\(\beta_{gPEA,Madrid}\) 0.117 0.011 0.095 0.140
\(\beta_{gPEA,Portugal}\) 0.110 0.003 0.104 0.117

9.5.2 Figs

10 MODEL M8

10.1 Main parameters

10.1.1 Standard deviations

10.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.329 0.353 5.631 7.034
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.040 0.007 0.029 0.055
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.208 0.103 0.096 0.477
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.533 0.401 0.203 1.533
\(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.064 0.032 0.028 0.141
\(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.049 0.026 0.019 0.117
\(\sigma_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) 0.203 0.109 0.098 0.449
\(\sigma\) 0.319 0.001 0.317 0.322

10.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.333 0.353 5.631 7.034
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.039 0.007 0.029 0.055
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.181 0.103 0.096 0.477
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.430 0.401 0.203 1.533
\(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.056 0.032 0.028 0.141
\(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.042 0.026 0.019 0.117
\(\sigma_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) 0.178 0.109 0.098 0.449
\(\sigma\) 0.319 0.001 0.317 0.322

10.1.1.3 Figs

10.1.2 Variances

10.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.054 0.078 0.009 0.228
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.445 1.548 0.041 2.349
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.005 0.009 0.001 0.020
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.003 0.005 0.000 0.014
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) 0.053 0.133 0.010 0.202
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.102 0.001 0.100 0.104
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.329 0.353 5.631 7.034
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146

10.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.033 0.078 0.009 0.228
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.185 1.548 0.041 2.349
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.003 0.009 0.001 0.020
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.002 0.005 0.000 0.014
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) 0.032 0.133 0.010 0.202
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.102 0.001 0.100 0.104
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.333 0.353 5.631 7.034
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146

10.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

10.2 Gene pool intercepts

10.2.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(g_{NA}\) -0.241 0.093 -0.441 -0.065
\(g_{C}\) 0.065 0.092 -0.131 0.242
\(g_{CS}\) -0.089 0.092 -0.288 0.088
\(g_{FA}\) 0.161 0.093 -0.031 0.340
\(g_{IA}\) 0.117 0.092 -0.079 0.295
\(g_{SES}\) -0.013 0.093 -0.210 0.167

10.2.2 Figs

10.2.2.1 MCMC intervals

10.2.2.2 Density ridges

10.3 Maximum temperature of the warmest month

10.3.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) 0.008 0.005 -0.003 0.019
\(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) -0.002 0.007 -0.016 0.012
\(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) 0.034 0.024 -0.010 0.082
\(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) 0.100 0.018 0.064 0.136
\(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) 0.013 0.005 0.003 0.024

10.3.2 Figs

10.4 Minimum precipitation of the driest month

10.4.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) -0.006 0.006 -0.019 0.006
\(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) 0.023 0.008 0.008 0.039
\(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) 0.023 0.022 -0.018 0.067
\(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) 0.064 0.018 0.029 0.098
\(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) -0.006 0.006 -0.019 0.006

10.4.2 Figs

10.5 rPEAs

10.5.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{rPEA,Asturias}\) 0.106 0.004 0.098 0.113
\(\beta_{rPEA,Bordeaux}\) 0.114 0.005 0.104 0.123
\(\beta_{rPEA,Caceres}\) 0.140 0.021 0.098 0.182
\(\beta_{rPEA,Madrid}\) 0.199 0.012 0.175 0.223
\(\beta_{rPEA,Portugal}\) 0.128 0.004 0.121 0.135

10.5.2 Figs

11 Model M9

11.1 Main parameters

11.1.1 Standard deviations

11.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.219 0.237 5.708 6.637
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.158 -0.148
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.178 0.093 0.086 0.413
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.404 0.294 0.164 1.160
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.042 0.007 0.030 0.058
\(\sigma\) 0.337 0.002 0.334 0.340

11.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.233 0.237 5.708 6.637
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.158 -0.148
\(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) 0.156 0.093 0.086 0.413
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.326 0.294 0.164 1.160
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.042 0.007 0.030 0.058
\(\sigma\) 0.337 0.002 0.334 0.340

11.1.1.3 Figs

11.1.2 Variances

11.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.041 0.077 0.007 0.170
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.250 0.921 0.027 1.346
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.114 0.001 0.112 0.116
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.219 0.237 5.708 6.637
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.158 -0.148

11.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) 0.024 0.077 0.007 0.170
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.107 0.921 0.027 1.346
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.114 0.001 0.112 0.116
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.233 0.237 5.708 6.637
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.158 -0.148

11.1.2.3 Figs

11.2 Gene pool intercepts

11.2.1 Table

11.2.1.1 Mean

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(g_{NA}\) -0.206 0.085 -0.372 -0.029
\(g_{C}\) 0.060 0.085 -0.101 0.238
\(g_{CS}\) -0.078 0.085 -0.241 0.101
\(g_{FA}\) 0.147 0.085 -0.017 0.324
\(g_{IA}\) 0.084 0.085 -0.077 0.262
\(g_{SES}\) 0.017 0.085 -0.145 0.195

11.2.1.2 Median

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(g_{NA}\) -0.208 0.085 -0.372 -0.029
\(g_{C}\) 0.059 0.085 -0.101 0.238
\(g_{CS}\) -0.080 0.085 -0.241 0.101
\(g_{FA}\) 0.145 0.085 -0.017 0.324
\(g_{IA}\) 0.082 0.085 -0.077 0.262
\(g_{SES}\) 0.015 0.085 -0.145 0.195

11.2.2 Figs

12 MODEL M10

12.1 Main parameters

12.1.1 Standard deviations

12.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.170 0.399 5.237 6.869
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.159 -0.148
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.042 0.007 0.031 0.058
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.524 0.374 0.184 1.550
\(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.079 0.046 0.036 0.182
\(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.088 0.058 0.037 0.214
\(\sigma\) 0.339 0.002 0.336 0.342

12.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.202 0.399 5.237 6.869
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.159 -0.148
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.042 0.007 0.031 0.058
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.416 0.374 0.184 1.550
\(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.069 0.046 0.036 0.182
\(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.075 0.058 0.037 0.214
\(\sigma\) 0.339 0.002 0.336 0.342

12.1.1.3 Figs

12.1.2 Variances

12.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.414 0.909 0.034 2.404
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.008 0.032 0.001 0.033
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.011 0.063 0.001 0.046
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.115 0.001 0.113 0.117
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.170 0.399 5.237 6.869
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.159 -0.148

12.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.173 0.909 0.034 2.404
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) 0.005 0.032 0.001 0.033
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) 0.006 0.063 0.001 0.046
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.115 0.001 0.113 0.117
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.202 0.399 5.237 6.869
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.601 0.003 0.596 0.607
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.153 0.003 -0.159 -0.148

12.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

12.2 Maximum temperature of the warmest month

12.2.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) -0.057 0.005 -0.067 -0.047
\(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) -0.070 0.007 -0.083 -0.056
\(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) -0.045 0.024 -0.092 0.002
\(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) 0.016 0.018 -0.019 0.051
\(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) -0.053 0.005 -0.062 -0.044

12.2.2 Figs

12.3 Minimum precipitation of the driest month

12.3.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) 0.035 0.005 0.025 0.044
\(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) 0.046 0.007 0.033 0.060
\(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) 0.050 0.023 0.004 0.096
\(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) 0.091 0.017 0.057 0.125
\(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) 0.033 0.005 0.024 0.042

12.3.2 Figs

12.3.3 Both

13 Model M11

13.1 Main parameters

13.1.1 Standard deviations

13.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.308 0.763 4.768 7.742
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.042 0.007 0.031 0.058
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.733 0.756 0.200 2.789
\(\sigma_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) 0.130 0.075 0.061 0.304
\(\sigma\) 0.338 0.002 0.335 0.341

13.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.322 0.763 4.768 7.742
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.041 0.007 0.031 0.058
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.499 0.756 0.200 2.789
\(\sigma_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) 0.113 0.075 0.061 0.304
\(\sigma\) 0.338 0.002 0.335 0.341

13.1.1.3 Figs

13.1.2 Variances

13.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 1.108 4.243 0.040 7.779
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) 0.023 0.056 0.004 0.092
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.114 0.001 0.112 0.117
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.308 0.763 4.768 7.742
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146

13.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.249 4.243 0.040 7.779
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) 0.013 0.056 0.004 0.092
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.114 0.001 0.112 0.117
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.322 0.763 4.768 7.742
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146

13.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

13.2 gPEAs

= global Positive effect alleles

13.2.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high

13.2.2 Figs

14 Model M12

14.1 Main parameters

14.1.1 Standard deviations

14.1.1.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.641 0.499 5.735 7.663
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.042 0.007 0.030 0.058
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.730 0.526 0.209 2.131
\(\sigma_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) 0.172 0.082 0.082 0.389
\(\sigma\) 0.336 0.001 0.333 0.339

14.1.1.2 Median

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.597 0.499 5.735 7.663
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146
\(\sigma_{B}\) 0.041 0.007 0.030 0.058
\(\sigma_{S}\) 0.576 0.526 0.209 2.131
\(\sigma_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) 0.151 0.082 0.082 0.389
\(\sigma\) 0.336 0.001 0.333 0.339

14.1.1.3 Figs

14.1.2 Variances

14.1.2.1 Mean

Parameter Mean SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.810 1.572 0.044 4.542
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) 0.036 0.047 0.007 0.152
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.113 0.001 0.111 0.115
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.641 0.499 5.735 7.663
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146

14.1.2.2 Median

In the Supplementary Information.

Parameter Median SD InfCI SupCI
\(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.003
\(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) 0.332 1.572 0.044 4.542
\(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) 0.023 0.047 0.007 0.152
\(\sigma^{2}\) 0.113 0.001 0.111 0.115
\(\beta_{0}\) 6.597 0.499 5.735 7.663
\(\beta_{age}\) 0.599 0.003 0.593 0.604
\(\beta_{age2}\) -0.151 0.003 -0.156 -0.146

14.1.2.3 Figs

In the Supplementary Information.

14.2 rPEAs

= region-specific Positive effect alleles

14.2.1 Table

Term Mean Std.error Conf.low Conf.high
\(\beta_{rPEA,Asturias}\) 0.099 0.004 0.091 0.107
\(\beta_{rPEA,Bordeaux}\) 0.092 0.005 0.081 0.102
\(\beta_{rPEA,Caceres}\) 0.120 0.021 0.079 0.161
\(\beta_{rPEA,Madrid}\) 0.174 0.013 0.150 0.200
\(\beta_{rPEA,Portugal}\) 0.122 0.004 0.114 0.129

14.2.2 Figs